The Law of Logistics

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Stockpile pressures are not a new challenge to military operations. Before the aerial campaign even started, General Caine warned the president that the U.S. did not have the stockpiles of high-tech weaponry necessary to sustain a prolonged conflict.

Simple, low-tech, conventional bombs is one thing, but very expensive and time consuming to manufacture and deploy missiles and missile batteries, is another thing. Therefore, the pace and sheer volume of special ordnance expended by the U.S. has rapidly accelerated the depletion of key U.S. offensive and defensive weapons.

From February 28th to April 7th, which marked the first day of the ceasefire, the U.S. struck more than 13,000 targets in Iran. It has also defended against more than 8,500 incoming Iranian missiles and drones.

In the first month of the strikes against Iran alone, the U.S. fired off more than 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles and more than 1,000 Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems. The U.S. also used more than 1,300 of the Army’s tactical ballistic missiles in the initial weeks of fighting.

The ATACMs stockpile — a short-range missile also in demand by Ukraine — is drained to levels that are a serious concern for military planners. The shortages, in particular, long-range guided missiles and air-defense interceptors, have been part of the reason Trump has pulled back from launching additional massive strikes against Iran in recent weeks, even though he continues to threaten them.

While the United States has announced new production agreements for some of the most critical munitions, such as Patriot air defense missiles, the munitions themselves can take as long as two years to produce, and there’s no immediate relief in sight for the shortages.

To complicate the situation, the Iranians have a very different mindset to that of secular western societies. They have reached the point where they are prepared to sacrifice themselves, hold out to the death and to the last regime zealot as necessary to fulfill their divine mission. Create as much chaos as possible to usher in the Islamic Messiah. When you reach that point, the use of force loses its leverage.

Furthermore, the Iranians only need to fire two missiles at Qatar to require the deployment of a complete multi-million defense systems to defend against cheaply made missiles and the Iranian regime has an almost unlimited capacity for attrition. The number of launchers and missiles that the United States needs to deploy throughout the Middle East is far, far greater. That is why the shortage of our ordnance is significant.

Thereby, the questions with a belligerent adversary committed to die for their cause, such as Iran, are these. When do you strike them? Where is the point at which you stop? Where do you begin to make concessions? But more importantly, how far are you willing to go?

All hard questions to answer. And truth be told, things aren’t looking well for the United States at this moment, mere weeks away from the midterm elections.